Yi Anguo was extremely dejected, feeling as if he'd gotten off to a bad start. In his first foray into trading international oil futures, it seemed highly likely he was headed for a complete defeat.

Indeed, the risks of the futures market were not so easily managed. Even for a reincarnator with a rough grasp of the trends in international oil prices, he had still underestimated the market's uncontrollable risks.

For instance, it was quite normal for oil prices to fluctuate by one to two US dollars daily. No one could know for certain whether the price would move up or down by a dollar or two at any given time.

"Shut down the computer. I'm taking you out to eat. By the time we get back, maybe my luck will have turned," Yi Anguo said, unable to bear the sight of his disastrous losses.

Ding Jing glanced at the market screen. The price of international crude oil had shot up to $50.43 per barrel. She knew he was just trying to save face and couldn't bring himself to admit defeat.

Ding Jing quietly moved the mouse, exited the trading software, and clicked the shutdown button.

The two went to a restaurant not far from the office. They had Cantonese food, as Ding Jing was from Guangdong Province, where most people don't handle spicy food well.

Yi Anguo could handle spice, but having left home to work at an early age, he had grown accustomed to all kinds of flavors and was fine without it. Furthermore, his ex-girlfriend, Wang Liping, also couldn't eat spicy food; it made her break out in acne. Thus, Yi Anguo had long been used to a lighter diet.

Of course, his love for spicy food was ingrained in him from childhood, so he still relished it whenever he had the chance. Ding Jing, however, couldn't handle any spice at all, so he had to accommodate her.

"Are we going to continue shorting this afternoon?" Ding Jing asked teasingly while enjoying her pigeon soup.

"Of course! I've said it before, the international oil futures market is definitely going to surge eventually, but certainly not right now. It hasn't hit rock bottom yet. So before it rebounds, it will definitely continue to fall," he responded.

His stance hadn't wavered; he still firmly believed that oil prices would continue to drop until they reached their true bottom. Only then would they begin an unstoppable rally.

"The bulls have started to push and have the upper hand for now, but the bears won't just sit back and take it. They're bound to counterattack. So, when we get back from our meal, we might find that not only have we not lost money, but we've actually made a profit."

"What if the position has already been liquidated?" Ding Jing couldn't help but ask, seeing him stubbornly refuse to admit defeat.

"Liquidated? That's impossible. My luck has always been very good," Yi Anguo said calmly.

But inwardly, he was already thinking of a backup plan. If he really was liquidated, he would just sell some more Tencent stock and throw a million US dollars at it this time. He was in it for the long haul. He'd insist on shorting; there was no way it wouldn't eventually fall.

Yi Anguo had come to a realization. Although the leverage in futures was high, having more margin was always better and safer. The less margin you had, the greater the risk of being liquidated by the slightest market movement.

For example, even though he knew that the price of oil futures would eventually decline today, the problem was that you couldn't predict exactly when it would fall. By the time it did, you might have already been liquidated, so the decline wouldn't matter to you anymore.

However, if your margin was large enough, there was nothing to worry about. He already knew that on the 19th, the price would definitely drop to $47 per barrel. He just had to set a take-profit order at that price and then lie back and wait for the win.

If the price was now over $50 a barrel, what did he have to fear? If he had enough margin to cover a rise to $55 a barrel, did he still need to worry about being liquidated? There was no way it was climbing to $55.

When Yi Anguo shared these thoughts with Ding Jing, she couldn't help but laugh.

"Theoretically, there's nothing wrong with that," she said, "but very few people invest in futures the way you do. If your judgment is wrong, you'll lose disastrously."

"Suppose you short international oil futures at $50 a barrel with one hundred lots, which is equivalent to 100,000 barrels of oil. For every dollar the price rises, you lose $100,000. If it rises to $55, you'll have lost $500,000."

"So what if it fluctuates around $55 for a month or two? What will you do then?"

"These futures contracts have expiration dates. Delivery has to be made after a certain period; you can't just hold them for as long as you want."

"Even if you hold contracts with a longer time frame, how can you guarantee that after fluctuating around $55 for two months, the price won't continue to rise?"

"If it climbs another five dollars to $60 per barrel, your losses will be even greater. What would you do then?"

Yi Anguo shook his head. "I'm only willing to make a long-term investment because I'm certain of the direction, whether it's up or down. Otherwise, why would I gamble?"

Ding Jing also shook her head. "If investing in the stock market can still be called an investment, then investing in futures is essentially gambling. Many futures transactions don't involve actual commodities, especially for retail investors, who aren't even qualified for physical settlement."

"Everyone thinks their calculations are perfect, that the price will surely rise or fall, but in the end, how many people actually win and have the last laugh?"

The more Ding Jing understood the nature of futures trading, the less she wanted Yi Anguo to participate. Even so-called financial investment experts wouldn't dare guarantee they would always be winners in futures.

Everyone knows Warren Buffett is the "Oracle of the Stock Market," but who is the "Oracle of Futures Trading?"

Many people dare to call themselves stock market gurus, but almost no one dares to claim they are a futures guru.

Although Yi Anguo felt that Ding Jing's words were wise and heartfelt advice for most people, he had his own ideas. He refused to believe that he couldn't profit from knowing which way the market was headed. It would be absurd if he couldn't.

After their meal, they returned to the office, turned on the computer, and opened the international crude oil trading software.

Before she even saw the screen, Ding Jing was certain that Yi Anguo's fifty short lots had been liquidated.

But when she saw the market price and the account's profit and loss status, her eyes widened, and she stared in utter disbelief.

Yi Anguo, for his part, had lost all hope. He assumed his position had been liquidated and was prepared to accept it. But when he saw the market quotes and his account data on the screen, he couldn't help but breathe a sigh of relief and crack a smile.

While they had been out for their meal, the international oil futures market had undergone a major reversal. After rising to $50.48, the price had made a sharp downturn and was now trading at $48.61 per barrel.

Fifty lots of international oil futures equaled fifty thousand barrels. With a floating profit of $1.49 per barrel, his total floating profit was $74,500, bringing his total account value to $174,500.

"Haha! How about that? I told you the price would fall further, didn't I? Are you convinced now?" Yi Anguo said, looking quite pleased with himself.

"Maybe you're just incredibly lucky. You still managed a huge comeback. If the price had risen just two more cents, your position would have been liquidated," Ding Jing said, admitting to herself that she was impressed.

"No! You're wrong. This isn't luck, it's skill," Yi Anguo said, shaking his head.

"Now that you've won, whatever you say sounds reasonable," Ding Jing replied helplessly.

"Sometimes, luck is a form of skill. You have to admit it," Yi Anguo said with a smile.

"So what now? Are you going to hold the position or take the profit and exit?" Ding Jing asked.

"Let's wait! There's no rush to act. I think there's still room for the price to fall. It hasn't hit bottom and started to rebound yet!" Yi Anguo said confidently.

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